Narrow on purpose. One domain, one time frame, one record.
Large projects stall; small ones produce an answer. So start small: one area you already argue about, a month of real events from it, and a report card on the model you can read before committing to anything.
In plain termsStart with one problem. Read the results. Then decide.
At a glance
One domain
The thing your team already argues about weekly.
A month of events
Usually enough to judge the shape.
A chosen time frame
How far ahead you need to be right.
A record, including losses
The evaluation is the deliverable.
Six steps from first call to a decision
Pick one domain
Not the enterprise. A single thing with items, a decision and a cost: payment integrity, churn, a line’s condition, a claims queue.
A working session
We stand up the OgMart reference world, then spend most of the time on yours: the items, the state that moves, and the actions that cost money. Bring the person who owns the decision.
Define the world
A short workshop names the items, the three to six numbers that decide whether someone acts, the main measure, how it normally behaves, and the price of each action. See ontology.
Load a sample of real events
A month is plenty to judge the shape. The platform advances state from your declared dynamics from the first day; it does not wait for history.
Declare the time frame
How far ahead must the answer be right? It is the most revealing question in the engagement, and it becomes the contract the model is judged against.
Read the model record
Error at each distance ahead against “nothing changes”, the furthest distance ahead that still wins, and the verdict for each: passed, failed or not measured. If it does not beat the simple guess in your domain, you hear it here.
What we need from you, and what you get
| You bring | You get |
|---|---|
| One domain and its decision owner | A forward position for every item in it |
| A sample of real events | A ranked, priced queue with the reasoning attached |
| The answer to “how far ahead?” | A model record you can take to a validation committee |
| Your reviewer, if you have one | The tenancy, audit and evidence answers, demonstrated |
What we will not do
Start with the decision you wish you could make earlier
Tell us the domain. We will tell you honestly whether a month of events is enough to find out.